讲座时间：2025年10月16日（周四）13:30-15:00

讲座地点：科研楼1115室

主讲人：郭萌萌，南京农业大学

主持人：李建培，u8国际

题目：Warming Trend, Falling Forecasts? High Temperature and Analyst Performance

摘要：This paper provides granular evidence on how rising temperatures affect the processing of financial information in view of sell-side analyst earnings forecast accuracy. We find that exposure to extreme heat significantly reduces the forecast accuracy of local analysts. We propose two potential channels. First, an increased frequency of extreme heat hinders information acquisition by discouraging site visits, which are important for accurate forecasting. Second, extreme heat contributes to analysts’ cognitive biases. We also explore possible mitigating factors, and find that analyst experience, brokerage firm resources, and information transparency can buffer the negative effects of extreme heat. Our study offers important insights into how climate change may indirectly distort information flows in financial markets by altering analysts’ behavior. These findings call for more effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to cope with the adverse effects of global warming on highly skilled professionals.

主讲人简介：郭萌萌，南京农业大学金融学院教授，博士生导师。研究领域为绿色金融、气候金融、环境经济学。四川省“天府青城计划”天府金融菁英、双法学会气候金融分会理事。在世界经济、金融研究、Journal of Banking and Finance等等国内外权威期刊发表论文30余篇。主持国家自然科学基金项目3项、教育部人文社会科学研究项目1项和留学基金委项目1项。